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Monday, January 11, 2010

Does news really matter these days?



This is a question that has started to rumble among new and experienced traders in the circles in which I tend to hang around. The market these days seems to care less about the news because even though much of the news has changed from negative news in which we became numb as it was expected to be such, it seems as if the markets have reacted far less in a shorter amount of time with recent good news than with the bad.
Even Non-farm Payroll numbers for December seemed to move the market very little. It was not until shortly before the New York markets closed that it made any type of large movement. I think people are preparing for a Dollar reversal. How much further will it go before people, including banks, will jump back on the wagon? The Dow staying high despite the economic condition can be a direct result of the declining Dollar. There has been no reasonable retrace of the market since the current rise began during the Q2 earnings reporting season in early July.
My suspicion is that banks are going to start to buy the Dollar despite the danger facing the currency due to the current U.S. administration's borrowing practices including the planned liabilities through future spending programs and lack of tax revenue from increased tax rates levied upon businesses when tax cuts expire at the end of the year. This buying may cause followers and others to ride the wave and we could see the Dollar trend up for a several months before ranging before the U.S. mid-term elections in November 2010.

George Rozansky is a Forex and stock trader and owner of managedforextrades.com and co-founder of ircforex.com.

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