EUR/USD Daily Outlook

EUR/USD's sharp fall today suggests that recovery from 1.4028 might have completed at 1.4193 already. Intraday bias is cautiously on the downside for the moment. Break of 1.4028 will confirm fall resumption and should target next key cluster support at 1.3737. On the upside, above 1.4193 will bring more consolidations. But after all, upside is expected to be limited below 1.4334 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.2456 has completed at 1.5143 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD. Focus now turns to 1.3737 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.3736). Decisive break there will also confirm the case that three wave consolidation from 1.2329 has finished at 1.5134 too. In other words, whole medium term term fall from 1.6039 should be resuming for a new low below 1.2329. On the upside, however, break of 1.4578 resistance will leave the fall from 1.5143 in three wave corrective structure and mixes up the outlook.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

USD/CHF's strong rise today suggests that retreat from 1.0494 might have completed at 1.0367 already. Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for the moment. Break of 1.0506 will confirm that whole rise from 0.9919 has resumed and should target 1.0590 medium term support turned resistance next. On the downside, below 1.0367 will bring more correction but after all, downside is expected to be contained above 1.0291 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 1.1963 has completed with five waves down to 0.9916 already, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Also, the three wave consolidation from 1.2296 should be finished too. Current rise from 0.9916 is expected to extend further to medium term trend line resistance first (now at 1.0996). Sustained trading above the trend line will affirm the case that long term rise from 2008 low of 0.9634 is resuming for another high above 1.2296. On the downside however, a break of 1.0131 support will invalidate this bullish view and argue that medium term down trend in USD/CHF is still in progress for another low below 0.9916.